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Serendipity-Only Pathways: The Clinician Who Has the Patients and the Foundation That Cannot Find Them

More than 80% of rare conditions received no research investment over a five-year period despite more than a billion pounds spent. Patient organizations report that only serendipitous pathways exist to reach an interested researcher. Meanwhile the clinician quietly following nine patients with the condition has no idea anyone is looking.

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Serendipity-Only Pathways: The Clinician Who Has the Patients and the Foundation That Cannot Find Them

A parent whose child has a rare genetic condition founds an organization. Over eight years, largely through fundraising among affected families, it accumulates enough money to fund a natural history study, which is the essential first step toward any therapy ever existing.

They need a clinician-investigator. Someone who sees these patients, understands the phenotype, and is willing to run a structured study.

They post a call on their website. They email the authors of the four case reports in the literature, three of whom have retired or moved on. They attend a conference and approach people at the poster session. They consider hiring a consultant, which would consume a meaningful share of the money they spent eight years raising.

Two states away, a paediatric neurologist has been following nine patients with this exact condition. She has kept careful notes for over a decade. She has wondered, more than once, whether anyone would ever fund a proper study.

She has never heard of the foundation. The foundation has never heard of her.

Neither of them is doing anything wrong. There is simply no channel between them, and the research that both of them want does not happen.

The scale of what is not being studied

The pattern this produces is stark and well documented.

Research published in BMJ Open in 2025 examining rare disease research investment found that more than 80 percent of rare conditions received no research investment between 2016 and 2021, despite over one billion pounds being invested in rare disease research over that period.

The money exists. It clusters around a small number of conditions with established translational programs, established investigators, and established institutional homes.

The same analysis described the situation facing patient organizations with a phrase worth quoting because it names the mechanism precisely: only "serendipitous pathways" exist for patient groups to reach an open-minded investigator.

Serendipity. Not process, not directory, not channel. Luck.

Who these organizations actually are

The population attempting this work is larger and more capable than most people assume, and simultaneously more resource-constrained.

A study of 61 Australian rare disease patient organization leaders published in Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases found:

  • 92 percent aim to support or promote research.
  • 95 percent had undertaken a research activity in the previous five years.
  • 59 percent had funded researchers directly.
  • 56.1 percent had no paid staff at all.
  • 27.3 percent operated on budgets under $10,000.

And their stated top difficulties: insufficient resources, and a perceived lack of researchers interested in studying their diseases.

Read those together and the picture is remarkable. These are overwhelmingly volunteer organizations, frequently run by affected families, that nonetheless fund research at meaningful rates. And their binding constraint is not only money. It is finding anyone who wants to do the work.

That perception of researcher disinterest is, I would argue, largely mistaken, and the mistake is instructive. It is not that no clinician is interested. It is that interested clinicians are invisible, so their absence from the organization's inbox is experienced as absence of interest.

The invisible supply

Now look at the other side, which nobody has ever mapped.

For any given rare condition, there exists a scattered population of clinicians who have actual accumulated exposure: the neurologist with nine patients, the nephrologist who has followed four families, the immunologist who recognized the pattern twice in fifteen years.

These clinicians are frequently not in academic research roles. They may have published nothing on the condition. Their exposure exists in their clinic records and their memory and nowhere else.

They are, however, exactly what the research requires. Natural history studies begin with a clinician who has the patients and the willingness. Not with a laboratory, not with a grant, not with an institution. With a person who is already seeing these patients.

And they are undiscoverable by every available method:

Publication search fails, because they have not published on it. The literature identifies people who wrote case reports, which is a small and biased subset weighted toward academic centers and toward the past.

Institutional directories fail, because they list specialty rather than rare-phenotype exposure. "Paediatric neurology" does not tell you she has nine of these.

Conference presence fails, because she has no reason to attend the specialty meeting for a condition she sees a few times a decade.

And referral networks fail, because she is the endpoint rather than the referrer.

Exposure to a rare condition is the single most valuable research asset in this domain and it is recorded nowhere on earth.

What exists, and what it covers

Serious infrastructure has been built here and it is worth understanding what it does and does not reach.

The Rare Diseases Clinical Research Network organizes consortia around groups of related conditions, notably requiring patient advocacy groups as formal research partners in each consortium, which is genuinely good design. Its coverage is the conditions its consortia address, which is a small fraction of the thousands of rare diseases.

The UK Rare Disease Research Network, launched in November 2024, reached roughly 250 members within six months, which demonstrates real appetite for exactly this kind of connective infrastructure.

Registries and natural history platforms exist for the better-organized conditions, which is a description of the successful minority.

And the FDA's Rare Disease Innovation Hub, established in 2024, has increased the regulatory demand for natural history evidence, which raises the value of exactly the studies that cannot find investigators.

The common feature is that each covers the conditions that already have organized research communities. They are the reward for having solved the discovery problem, not the solution to it.

For a condition with no consortium, no registry, and no established investigator, the situation is the one described at the top of this article.

Why this is getting more acute

Genomic diagnosis has changed the shape of the problem in a way that deserves specific attention.

Sequencing now routinely identifies patients with conditions their treating clinician has never seen before and may never see again. A variant is found, a diagnosis is assigned, and a family is told the name of something that perhaps two hundred people in the world are known to have.

That produces two simultaneous effects:

More diagnosed patients with ultra-rare conditions, distributed thinly across enormous numbers of clinicians.

And more clinicians holding exposure of one or two cases, which individually is nearly worthless for research and collectively would constitute a study population.

The person with nine cases is now genuinely unusual. The much larger population is the thousand clinicians with one case each, who between them hold the natural history of the disease, and who have no mechanism to know about each other at all.

Genomic medicine has multiplied the number of conditions requiring study while distributing the relevant clinical exposure more thinly than any existing discovery method can detect.

What would actually work

Map clinician exposure, not patients. This is the design insight that makes the whole thing tractable and safe. The valuable, findable, low-risk asset is a clinician's declaration that they have followed some number of patients with a given phenotype. Bucketed, non-identifying, and about the clinician rather than the patients.

No patient data. No registry of individuals. Just: this clinician has seen this, and would consider research.

Include a research willingness signal. Exposure without willingness produces cold emails to uninterested people. Willingness without exposure produces enthusiasm without patients. The intersection is small, valuable, and currently invisible.

Screen and route the demand side. Patient organizations and companies should not be able to broadcast to clinicians directly, or the channel becomes spam within a year. Requests need screening for legitimacy, and the clinician chooses whether to engage.

Aggregate the ones and twos. For ultra-rare conditions, the mechanism that matters most is connecting the many clinicians with single cases, which is the only way a study population exists at all.

And keep the boundaries absolutely clear. All patient contact remains through the treating clinician, under consent and ethical review. The connection being brokered is professional, between a clinician and a research sponsor. Nothing about patients moves through any intermediary.

What you can do now

If you are a clinician with rare disease exposure

Write down what you have seen. Condition, approximate number of patients, over what period. Most clinicians holding valuable exposure have never articulated it even to themselves, and it exists in no document that anyone could find.

Contact the patient organization for the conditions you follow. Almost every rare condition has one, and they are typically small, volunteer-run, and would be astonished to hear from a clinician who has patients. Given that 92 percent aim to support research and 59 percent have funded researchers, this is a direct route to the exact thing that is otherwise absent.

Tell your specialty society what you see. Societies frequently maintain interest groups and are the natural aggregation point for scattered exposure, and they cannot aggregate what nobody reports.

Publish the case series, even a small one. It is currently the only mechanism by which anyone will find you, and it takes far less effort than most clinicians assume.

If you lead a rare disease organization

The researchers are not uninterested. They are invisible. The perception that nobody wants to study your condition is understandable and probably wrong. The clinicians who have your patients are not reachable by the methods available to you.

Reach clinicians through your own families. Your member families each have a treating clinician, and those clinicians are, by definition, people with exposure to the condition. This is the most direct available route and it is systematically underused, because organizations tend to approach researchers rather than treating clinicians.

Ask for small commitments first. A clinician who will contribute de-identified natural history data on four patients is far easier to recruit than one who will lead a study, and the first frequently leads to the second.

Look at what the RDCRN did right. Requiring patient advocacy groups as formal research partners inverted the usual power relationship and is a model worth pressing funders to replicate.

If you fund or regulate rare disease research

Fund the discovery layer. More than 80 percent of rare conditions receiving no investment is not primarily a funding-volume problem, since a billion pounds was spent. It is a matching problem, and no funder is addressing it.

Recognize that natural history demand has outrun natural history supply. Regulatory expectations for natural history evidence have risen while the mechanism to identify who can generate it has not been built.

Frequently asked questions

How many rare diseases receive research funding? Fewer than one in five. Analysis published in BMJ Open in 2025 found more than 80 percent of rare conditions received no research investment between 2016 and 2021, despite more than a billion pounds being invested in rare disease research over that period, with funding clustering around a small number of conditions.

What do rare disease patient organizations do? More than most people expect. A study of 61 Australian rare disease patient organization leaders found 92 percent aim to support research, 95 percent had undertaken a research activity within five years, and 59 percent had directly funded researchers, while 56.1 percent had no paid staff and 27.3 percent operated on budgets under $10,000.

Why can't patient organizations find researchers? Because clinicians with relevant patient exposure are not discoverable. Publication search finds only those who have written case reports, institutional directories list specialty rather than rare-phenotype exposure, and conference presence is unlikely for a condition seen a few times per career. Research describes only serendipitous pathways existing between patient groups and interested investigators.

What is a natural history study and why does it matter? A structured longitudinal description of how a disease progresses without intervention. It is a prerequisite for orphan drug development and for regulatory evaluation of new therapies, and it begins with a clinician who has the patients and the willingness to run it, rather than with a laboratory or a grant.

Does the Rare Diseases Clinical Research Network solve this? For the conditions it covers, substantially, and it notably requires patient advocacy groups as formal research partners in each consortium. Its coverage is a small fraction of the thousands of known rare diseases, so for most conditions the discovery problem is untouched.

How has genomic diagnosis changed the problem? It has multiplied the number of diagnosed ultra-rare conditions while distributing clinical exposure more thinly. Instead of one clinician with nine cases, the more common situation is a thousand clinicians with one case each, who collectively hold the natural history of the disease and have no way to know about one another.

The bottom line

A parent spends eight years raising money to fund research into their child's disease, and then cannot find anybody to do it. A neurologist two states away has been following nine patients with that disease for a decade and wondering whether a study will ever happen.

More than four in five rare conditions received no research investment over a recent five-year period, not for want of a billion pounds spent, but because the money concentrated where investigators were already visible.

The clinicians who hold the essential asset, actual accumulated exposure to a rare phenotype, are undiscoverable by publication search, institutional directory, conference presence, or referral network. Their exposure exists in clinic records and memory, and in no system anywhere.

So patient organizations conclude that researchers are not interested, which is understandable and largely wrong, and interested clinicians conclude that nobody funds this work, which is also wrong.

The research literature describing this situation used exactly the right word. The pathway between them is serendipitous, which is a polite way of saying that whether a rare disease gets studied depends on whether two people happen to meet.


Part of a series on the missing professional infrastructure of healthcare. Previously: Nobody Will Review Your Paper

Evidence note: rare disease research investment figures and the characterization of serendipitous pathways come from BMJ Open (2025). Patient organization capacity and activity figures come from a study of 61 Australian rare disease patient organization leaders published in Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2016), which is a single-country sample and may not generalize. Rare Diseases Clinical Research Network structure is as described in published consortium literature. UK Rare Disease Research Network membership figures are as reported following its November 2024 launch. Regulatory context regarding natural history evidence reflects FDA activity from 2024 onward.

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